"The Goldilocks Effect in Naval Ship Design: Too Little, Too Much, Just Right"
This event will offer 1.0 PDH credit
The well-known Goldilocks fairy tale is almost 200 years old. The Goldilocks principle is about something being within certain margins or limits and can be found in science, politics, economics and even in naval ship design. Ship design involves making thousands of decisions and there are consequences for right and wrong decisions. One of the most critical decisions is made at the very beginning of a ship design. There are generally three options.
Choose a new design but impose size constraints on it or choose something known like a legacy or parent design and modify it. This is the “Too Little” extreme, and we discuss two examples: DDG 51 Flight I, a new design where arbitrary displacement and size constraints were imposed in a vain attempt to control cost, and DDG 51 Flight III, which crammed a new radar, new generators, new cooling system, and new deckhouse into the already cramped Flight IIA hull form by accepting half the normal service life allowance for KG.
Choose the unknown, a ship design with a number of new systems that are still being developed but with the potential for significant improvement even though the time and cost may be much more than expected. This is the ”Too Much” extreme, and the cascading deleterious effect of Including multiple major unproven technologies inevitably results in major cost and schedule overruns. Examples include DDG 1000, which had ten new systems being developed in parallel; and CVN 78, with thirteen.
Choosing balance between known and unknown, risky and risk-free, predictable and unpredictable will meet warfighting objectives, but not at an unexpected growth in cost and time and the price of a failed ship acquisition. ”Just Right” would apply lessons learned from Acquisition Reform failures and return to OPNAV user-driven, NAVSEA-led Navy collaborative design with industry participation early on. Early user-designer-builder dialog as the Navy balances cost, performance, and risk, advocating a strategy which seriously addresses reducing maintenance and modernization costs. No arbitrary “Too Little” constraints and resist excessive “Too Much” parallel development. This “Just Right” strategy will enable the rapid fielding of balanced, affordable, and flexible warships. Time invested in a new design pays off.
Speakers Name and Bios
CAPT Barry Tibbitts, USN (Ret); Robert G. Keane, Jr., President, Ship Design USA, Inc.
Capt. Tibbitts is broadly qualified in all aspects of naval engineering, for both surface ships and submarines, including R&D, design, construction, maintenance, and operations. He was educated at the U.S. Naval Academy and earned two graduate degrees from MIT, served five years at sea on three ships earning surface and submarine warfare qualifications, and spent nine years in shipyards. He commanded the 2700-person David Taylor Naval Ship R&D Center, was Director of the NAVSEA Ship Design Group for six years, and professor of Naval Construction and Engineering at MIT. He has published numerous papers on naval ship design, acquisition, and technology, and is the author of chapters in four books He is a Fellow of SNAME and an honorary life member of ASNE. He received ASNE’s Harold E Saunders Award for lifetime achievements in naval engineering (2006), ASNE’s “Jimmie” Hamilton Award (2018), and SNAME’s ABS Captain Joseph H. Linnard Prize (2019). He is an Assoc. Editor of the Naval Engineers Journal.
ROBERT G. KEANE, JR., President, Ship Design USA, Inc. has over 50 years of naval ship design experience, 35 years of which were in senior technical leadership positions at the Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA). During 21 years as a member of the Federal Senior Executive Service (SES), he served as the U.S. Navy’s Chief Naval Architect, Chief of Ship Design, Director of Ship Survivability and Technical Authority for Total Ship System Engineering and Hull Form Design, Stability and Hydrodynamics. His Navy-led ship design teams completed over 35 major Contract Designs which resulted in the acquisition of about 200 naval ships. He now heads his own consulting firm; Ship Design USA, Inc. Mr. Keane received a B.E.S. in Mechanical Engineering from the Johns Hopkins University, a M.E. from Stevens Institute of Technology in ship hydrodynamics, and a M.S.E. in Naval Architecture & Marine Engineering from the University of Michigan. He is a Life Fellow of SNAME and a Life member of ASNE, as well as Chair of the SNAME-ASNE Joint Ship Design Committee. He is a plank-owner of the Navy’s Center for Innovation in Ship Design, is well published and has received numerous honorary awards, including the National Academy of Sciences Gibbs Brothers Medal, Secretary of the Navy Distinguished Civilian Service Award, SNAME RADM David Taylor Medal, and ASNE CAPT Harold Saunders and Frank Law Awards. He was born and raised in Baltimore, married his high school sweetheart and they have three sons and six grandchildren.